Many people think the British obsession with owning your
home started with Thatcher in the early 1980’s, when she allowed council
tenants to but their council houses, under the right to buy scheme. However,
the growth actually started just after the Second World War. Looking at the
country as a whole, in 1951, 30% of residential property were owner occupied,
then every ten years that rose incrementally to 39% by 1961, 51% by 1971, 58%
by 1981, 68.07% by 2001 but after that, it dropped to 63.4% by 2011 and
continues to drop today.
After leaving home, early/mid twenties young adults tend to
start to settle down and move out of the family home into their own home. After a couple of years, they will have a
choice of either buying their first house (albeit with mortgage) or decide to privately
rent for the long term (because the Council House waiting list is measured in
decades at the moment!). The ratio of people owning a house with a mortgage
verses privately renting is an extremely important guide to what people are
doing about their housing needs and what their attitude to renting v's buying
is.
This is a really important change in the way we live, as I
explained to a local Cambridge landlord the other day, knowing when and where
the demand of tenants is going to come from in the coming decade is just as important
as the knowing supply side of the buy to let equation, in relation to number of
properties built in the city, Cambridge property prices and Cambridge rents.
In the Cambridge City Council area as whole, there are 11,170
households that are privately rented via a landlord or letting agency verses 11,058
households that are owned with a mortgage.
However, when we look deeper (as the devil is always in the detail), 5,253
of those 11,058 households are 35 to 49 year Old's and 3,247 are households of
50 to 64 year olds. I would expect all the 50+ years to be paying their
mortgage off as they enter retirement as I would with some of the people in
their mid/late 40’s.
Meanwhile, at the other end, in the 25 to 34 age range (the
age most people bought their first home in the 1970’s/80’s/90’s) only 1,855
of the 7,237 households occupied by those 25 and 34 year olds are owner occupiers
with mortgages, because 5,382 households are privately rented. This means only 25.6%
of 25 to 34 years have bought their house (with a mortgage). Twenty years ago,
that would have a much higher percentage of homeowners (between 75% to 85%).
It can be seen that as the older generation pay their
mortgages off as they start to get to retirement and the younger generation
aren’t jumping on the property ladder like they were 20 or 30 years ago, the
private rental sector will take up the slack, as more and more people will want
a roof over their head, but won’t buy one but rent one. With Local Authorities
and Housing Associations not building houses anywhere near like they the number
of houses that they were in the 1950’s, 60’ and 70’s, the private landlord appears
to have good demand for their rental properties for many decades to come.
This will create a polarisation in the housing market
between those, mostly older, households who own outright and those, mostly
younger, households who rent. Our housing market is very much turning into
European model. However, all is not lost, the younger generation will inherit
their parents properties, which in turn will enable them to buy, albeit later
in life.
If you are a landlord or thinking of become a landlord, and
would like to read more articles like this and other information on the Cambridge
Property Market, then please visit the Cambridge Property Blog http://cambridgeproperty.blogspot.co.uk/