Prices up, prices down, prices stable..... the newspapers are full of good news, bad
news and indifferent news about the Brit’s favourite subject after the weather..... the property market. The thing is the UK does
not have one housing market. Instead, it is a patchwork of mini property markets
all performing in a different way. At
one end of scale is London, which has seen average prices grow in the last
twelve months by a shade under 19% (and again that is an average because some Borough’s
in London have risen by 26%) whilst in the land of Daffodils, by contrast, Wales
only saw a 2% increase in property values (although in the Merthyr Valleys they
dropped by over 11%).
Well we can’t ignore the rest of the UK, and we can’t forget
that the Chancellor’s Stamp Duty reforms have polarised the London property markets
above £1,000,000 because at the top end of the market, punitive Stamp Duty
charges will dampen demand further. While the Bank of England warned of the
growing London property price bubble in the Spring of 2014, even talk of a
recovery in some areas was premature. In 2015, irrespective of where you are in
the UK, one story will unite the patchwork quilt of markets – really slow
property value growth.
But what about Cambridge? Well, we haven’t had the December
figures from the Land Registry yet but the last few months’ activity and prices
achieved would suggest neither house price growth nor drops. In fact, most sellers are buyers anyway, so
if you need to take less for yours, you won’t have to pay as much for the one
you want to buy ... and that is good news for everyone as most move up market
when they move. This is even better for landlord investors, as they can bag a
bargain as well.
The question you should be asking though is, not only what’s
happening to property prices, but which price band exactly is selling? I like
to keep an eye on the property market in Cambridge on a daily basis because it
enables me to give the best advice and opinion on what (or not) to buy in Cambridge.
Over the last two months (62 days to be precise), 79
properties with asking prices under £300k have come onto the market in Cambridge
and 53.1% of them (42 properties) have a
buyer and sold stc. Between £300k and £450k, of the 120 properties that come on
to the market, an almost identical proportion (54.1%) of them (65 properties)
have a buyer. The £450k to £600k price range has seen 42 properties come on to
the market, and 30.9% have a buyer (13 properties). Finally, the £600k+ range has been slower,
with only 13.7% (8 properties) of the 58 that have come on to the market in the
last 62 days finding buyers.
The next three
months’ activity will be crucial in understanding which way the market will go
this year and I honestly believe we will not see any house price growth
or drops this side of the election. Election or no election, people will always
need a roof over their head and that is why the property market has rode the
storms of the Oil crisis in the 1970’s, the 1980’s depression, Black Monday in
the 1990’s, and latterly the Credit Crunch together with the various house
price crashes of 1973, 1987 and 2008.
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